Watch These Nike Price Levels After Stock Slides on Full-Year Outlook Withdrawal

Shares Slumped Nearly 6% in Extended Trading on Tuesday

Source: TradingView.com
Source: TradingView.com

Key Takeaways

  • Nike shares fell in extended trading Tuesday after the apparel and equipment giant withdrew its full-year outlook and said it plans to postpone its upcoming investor day ahead of the company’s transition to a new CEO later this month.
  • The stock has rallied more than 25% from the lower trendline of a falling wedge, though Wednesday’s projected earnings-driven selling threatens to derail the recent bullish price momentum.
  • Investors should monitor key lower price levels on Nike’s weekly chart around $85 and $79, while watching important higher price levels near $96 and $104.

Nike (NKE) shares moved sharply lower in extended trading on Tuesday after the apparel and equipment giant withdrew its full-year outlook and said it plans to postpone its upcoming investor day ahead of the company’s transition to a new CEO later this month.

In September, the sneaker maker announced that former senior executive Elliott Hill would take the helm, replacing John Donahoe as CEO, as the company navigates a strategy reset in an ongoing effort to revive sales, rebuild wholesale partnerships, and improve branding. Since Hill’s appointment on Sept. 19, Nike shares have gained around 10% through Tuesday’s close, though they trade nearly 18% lower year to date.

Nike shares fell 5.9% to $83.85 in after-hours trading Tuesday.

Below, we review the technicals on Nike’s weekly chart and identify important post-earnings price levels to watch.

Shares Trade Within Falling Wedge Pattern

Since topping out in November 2021, Nike shares have oscillated within a falling wedge, a classic chart pattern that consists of converging downward sloping trendlines and indicates a bullish reversal upon a breakout.

More recently, the stock has rallied more than 25% from the wedge’s lower trendline, though Wednesday’s projected earnings-driven selling threatens to derail the recent bullish price momentum.

Amid the potential for post-earnings volatility, investors should eye several price-sensitive levels on Nike’s chart likely to attract interest.

Key Lower Chart Levels in Focus

During Wednesday’s expected selling, investors should initially monitor how the price reacts to the $85 level, a location where the shares could draw support from a trendline linking multiple peaks and troughs on the chart from September 2018 to August this year.

A fall below this level could see a retracement to around $79, where the stock would likely encounter buying interest from a range of similar trading levels on the chart connected by a multi-year trendline stretching all the way back to June 2018.

Important Higher Chart Levels to Watch

If Nike shares resume their recent push higher, investors should keep an eye on the $96 region, currently positioned just above the 50-week moving average. Buyers who have purchased shares at lower levels could look to book profits near a June countertrend high, which also corresponds with comparable price levels on the chart extending back to October 2019.

Further buying could propel a move up to $104, an area where the shares may run into overhead resistance near the falling wedge pattern’s top trendline and other price action around the same level dating back to January 2020.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-10-01T04:28:14-05:00October 1st, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Watch These Nike Price Levels After Stock Slides on Full-Year Outlook Withdrawal

Dockworkers’ Strike Could Cost the Economy $4.5B Per Day—and Rekindle Inflation

<p>Brandon Bell/Getty Images</p> In an aerial view, the Port of Houston Authority is seen during a strike on October 01, 2024 in Houston, Texas. Members of the International Longshoreman

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

In an aerial view, the Port of Houston Authority is seen during a strike on October 01, 2024 in Houston, Texas. Members of the International Longshoreman’s Association have begun a nationwide strike, consisting of more than 50,000 workers at ports along the East Coast and Texas.

Key Takeaways

  • International Longshoremen’s Association members walked out on 14 ports from New England to Texas this week, which could cost the U.S. economy up to $4.5 billion each day.
  • The dockworker’s strike could close off ports that handle more than 68% of America’s imports.
  • Increased shipping rates and transportation costs could reignite inflation and make the Fed rethink any more interest rate cuts.

The start of a strike by dockworkers in ports from New England to Texas could cost the U.S. economy up to $4.5 billion daily and reignite inflation.

An estimated 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association walked out of their jobs, seeking higher pay and labor protections against automation from their employers.

The 14 ports where the dockworkers walked out handle more than 68% of the country’s imports. The ensuing supply chain disruptions are expected to affect retailers relying on port delivery and could raise customer prices. But their economic effects could go even further.

The Longer the Strike Persists, The More It Will Cost

Economists differ in their estimates of how much the strike will cost the U.S. economy. According to a high-end estimate from JP Morgan, it could cost between $3.8 billion and $4.5 billion per day. Oxford Economics forecast the strike could reduce the country’s economic growth by an annualized 0.1% for every week it continues. 

“The economic consequences of the strike will ratchet up the longer the strike persists.” Elise Burton, Moody’s Analytics.

It could last for a while. President Joe Biden has said he will not step into the fray despite Republican calls to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act.

“Collective bargaining is the best way for workers to get the pay and benefits they deserve,” Biden said in a statement Tuesday.

The Strike Could Reignite Inflation

The last port strike, in October 1977, lasted 44 days.

Similar to the current economic situation, inflation rates declined through the summer and early fall of that year. After three months of consistent inflation of 0.3%, the port strike helped month-over-month inflation jump to 0.5% in November 1977.

Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has held its rates at a decades-high to tame inflation caused by COVID-19-related supply chain disruptions. The pandemic caused restrictions at borders and locked-up ports, making it harder for retailers and consumers to receive their products.

In August, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation approached the central bankers’ annual goal of 2%. That progress could be in jeopardy if the strike has an impact similar to the 1977 work stoppage.

And That Could Spook the Federal Reserve

Because of the progress on inflation, the Federal Reserve cut its key federal funds rate for the first time since the pandemic in September.

Central bankers forecast they would continue cutting this year and into the next. However, some economists say the effects of the supply chain disruptions caused by the strikes could give the Fed pause.

“Elevated shipping rates, transportation expenses, and other cost increases would eventually flow into consumer prices,” said Matt Colyar, economist for Moody Analytics. “This would undermine progress on inflation and could make the Federal Reserve think twice about additional interest rate cuts in the near term.”

Futures traders currently place a better-than-60% chance on a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in November, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-30T23:13:37-05:00September 30th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Dockworkers’ Strike Could Cost the Economy $4.5B Per Day—and Rekindle Inflation

S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Index Falls as Port Workers Begin Strike

<p>Smith Collection / Gado / Getty Images</p>

Smith Collection / Gado / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.9% on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024, amid concerns about the economic impact of a strike by workers at major port facilities.
  • Humana shares dropped after the insurer unveiled its Medicare Advantage plans for next year.
  • Shares of oil and gas companies and defense firms moved higher as tensions intensified in the Middle East.

Major U.S. equities indexes moved lower as dockworkers went on strike at port facilities on the East and Gulf coasts. The labor action by members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) could unsettle supply chains and cause a ripple of impacts throughout the economy, including a potential increase in inflation.

The S&P 500 fell 0.9% on Tuesday, retreating from Monday’s record close. The Dow slipped 0.4%, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.5%, pressured by the tech sector.

Amentum Holdings (AMTM) shares plunged 20.2%, reversing similarly sized gains posted in the previous session as the government services firm debuted as a publicly traded company and became the newest member of the S&P 500. The company brings together an existing engineering and technology provider with two government-related divisions spun off from Jacobs Solutions (J).

The rise and fall of Amentum shares corresponds with the pattern of stocks receiving a temporary bump upon their addition to the S&P 500 as funds that track the index buy the newly added constituent. After notching the top performance in the benchmark index on Monday, Amentum was the weakest stock in the S&P 500 on Tuesday.

Shares of Humana (HUM) dropped 11.8% after the health insurer announced its Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Plan offerings for 2025. The company announced new benefits including a new pair of glasses every year for all plans with vision coverage and plans with comprehensive dental coverage. Although Humana has seen some improvement in its Medicare business, challenges related to Medicare reimbursement rates contributed to the firm’s decision to withdraw its full-year profit guidance in April.

According to regulatory filings, Dell Technologies (DELL) founder and CEO Michael Dell sold a $1.2 billion stake in the tech hardware and services provider. Significant selling by company insiders can cause investors to become less optimistic about a stock’s expected trajectory, and Dell shares sank 4.5% on Tuesday. Dell is another recent addition to the S&P 500.

Tuesday’s top performance in the S&P 500 belonged to shares of Paychex (PAYX), which jumped 4.9% after the payroll services provider reported better-than-expected sales and profits for its fiscal first quarter. The firm said expansion of its client base, strong cost controls, and new artificial intelligence (AI) products contributed to the strong results.

Crude oil futures prices increased around 3.7% as growing tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about global energy supplies. The uptick in prices provided a boost to numerous oil and gas stocks. Shares of APA Corp. (APA) added 4.9%, while shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) and Marathon Oil (MRO) were up 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively.

The rising geopolitical concerns also helped lift defense and weapons stocks. Lockheed Martin (LMT) shares added 3.6%, while shares of other companies in the defense industry also advanced.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-30T21:44:15-05:00September 30th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Index Falls as Port Workers Begin Strike

Watch These Dollar Tree Stock Price Levels After Big Third-Quarter Drop

Source: TradingView.com
Source: TradingView.com

Key Takeaways

  • Dollar Tree shares fell 34% in the third quarter as the discount retailer continues to face pressures from a challenging macro environment that has caused financially constrained consumers to rein in spending.
  • The stock’s September sell-off occurred on the highest monthly trading volume since March 2009, potentially flagging capitulation selling in the shares.
  • Investors should monitor key price levels on Dollar Tree’s monthly chart around $70 and $54, while watching key resistance areas near $96 and $115.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares tumbled 34% in the third quarter, making it the S&P 500’s fifth worst performing stock over the period, as a challenging macro environment has caused financially constrained consumers to rein in spending on discretionary products. 

The discount retailer, whose stock has lost around half its value since the start of the year, announced earlier this year it was exploring strategic alternatives, including selling or spinning off the Family Dollar brand. It also announced plans to close 1,000 stores in an effort to improve profitability.

Below, we take a closer look at the technicals on Dollar Tree’s monthly chart and point out important historical price levels to watch out for in the quarter ahead.

Potential Capitulation Selling

Dollar Tree shares broke down below a multi-year descending channel in August, with declines accelerating into September.

Importantly, the sharp downward move has occurred on the highest monthly trading volume since March 2009, potentially flagging capitulation selling in the stock.

Although the shares trade around 16% above their September low, the price remains below the closely watched 200-month moving average, indicating the bears remain in control of the action.

Looking ahead, investors should monitor several well-respected support and resistance levels on Dollar Tree’s chart that other market participants will likely be watching.

Key Support Areas to Monitor

The first lower level to watch sits around $70, a location on the chart just below Monday’s close where the shares may find support near the prominent June 2017 and March 2020 swing lows.

A breakdown below this level could instigate a drop to the $54 level, where the stock would likely attract buying interest from bargain hunters near a trendline connecting the June 2012 peak and prices positioned around the February 2014 trough.

Important Resistance Levels to Watch

An initial upswing in the stock’s price could see a rise to the $96 area, where the shares find a confluence of resistance from the descending channel’s lower trendline and a horizontal line joining a range of similar trading levels from June 2016 to October 2021.

Finally, reclaiming the above area may see the shares climb to $115, a region where investors could seek selling opportunities near three prior record highs on the chart that formed between January 2018 and April 2021.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-30T13:50:06-05:00September 30th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Watch These Dollar Tree Stock Price Levels After Big Third-Quarter Drop

FTC Clears Chevron-Hess Merger, But Bans Hess CEO From Joining Board

<p>Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty Images</p>

Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Chevron’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess cleared a regulatory hurdle Monday as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) completed its review of the deal.
  • However, the FTC barred Hess CEO John Hess from joining Chevron’s board.
  • The regulatory agency said it had concerns Hess’ history of communications with OPEC officials about oil supply.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Monday cleared Chevron’s (CVX) $53 billion acquisition of Hess (HES), but barred Hess CEO John Hess from joining Chevron’s board, citing concerns about his previous communications with Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) officials.

The FTC said Hess previously supported OPEC countries’ “stabilizing” supply and effectively raising prices, and that a spot on Chevron’s board could give Hess has more influence to cause Chevron to lower production and raise prices for oil and its downstream products like gas for U.S. consumers.

Chevron, Hess Agree To Keep John Hess Off Board

The companies said they disagreed with the FTC’s reasoning, but agreed not to put Hess on Chevron’s board. Two members of the five-person commission voted against the order, as Commissioner Andrew Ferguson said the idea comments from Hess “could move global oil markets is laughable.”

Monday’s judgment mirrors a similar FTC ruling approving the nearly $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources by ExxonMobil (XOM) and barring Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield from joining the new company’s board.

After clearing the FTC hurdle, the Chevron and Hess merger still faces a legal challenge from ExxonMobil and China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) over whether Hess can sell its assets in Guyana that the other companies have a stake in. The companies said they expect a decision in that case sometime in 2025.

Hess shares finished 1.6% higher Monday at $135.80, while Chevron shares ticked up 1.2% to $147.27.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-30T20:59:02-05:00September 30th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on FTC Clears Chevron-Hess Merger, But Bans Hess CEO From Joining Board

Verizon Signs $3.3B Tower Lease Deal With Vertical Bridge

<p>NurPhoto / Contributor / Getty Images</p>

NurPhoto / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Verizon and broadband tower company Vertical Bridge signed a 10-year lease deal worth $3.3 billion.
  • The agreement gives Vertical Bridge exclusive rights to more than 6,000 towers in the U.S. from subsidiaries of Verizon.
  • Verizon said the transaction was part of its efforts to reduce tower-related costs.

Verizon Communications (VZ) struck a $3.3 billion lease agreement with Vertical Bridge, the largest private owner and operator of broadband towers in the country.

Verizon said Vertical Bridge would obtain exclusive rights “to lease, operate and manage 6,339 wireless communications towers across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. from subsidiaries of Verizon.” It added that the transaction includes upfront proceeds of about $2.8 billion.

The deal provides for a 10-year lease back capacity on the towers, with Verizon as the anchor tenant, and that arrangement could be extended to 50 years. As part of the deal, Verizon will get access to additional space on the towers for its future use, subject to certain restrictions. 

The company said the move was part of Verizon’s efforts “to drive down tower-related costs and provide greater vendor diversity in a concentrated industry.”

The transaction is expected to close by the end of this year.

Shares of Verizon edged 0.1% higher in intraday trading Monday. They’ve gained about 19% since the start of the year.

<p>TradingView</p>

TradingView

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By |2024-09-29T17:28:06-05:00September 29th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Verizon Signs $3.3B Tower Lease Deal With Vertical Bridge

Stellantis Stock Plunges as Jeep Maker Cuts Outlook

<p>	Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty Iamges</p>

Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty Iamges

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Stellantis shares are tumbling Monday after the Chrysler and Jeep parent issued a profit warning.
  • The company said it is cutting excess North American inventory amid a “deterioration in global industry dynamics” and competition from Chinese rivals.
  • The company said its fiscal 2024 adjusted operating income margin now is expected to be between 5.5% and 7.0%, versus its previous projection for “double digit” levels, with about two-thirds of the reduction “driven by corrective actions in North America.”
  • Shares of General Motors and Ford Motor also are falling.

Stellantis (STLA) shares are tumbling Monday morning after the Chrysler and Jeep parent issued a profit warning, noting it is cutting excess North American inventory amid a “deterioration in global industry dynamics” and competition from Chinese rivals.

The company said its fiscal 2024 adjusted operating income margin now is expected to be between 5.5% and 7.0%, versus its previous projection for “double digit” levels, with about two-thirds of the reduction “driven by corrective actions in North America.”

Stellantis Accelerates ‘Planned Normalization of Inventory Levels’

The Big Three automaker said it “has accelerated its planned normalization of inventory levels in the U.S.,” aiming for no more than 330,000 units of dealer inventory by the end of 2024 instead of the first quarter of 2025. 

Stellantis temporarily stopped making its top-selling Jeep Wrangler and Grand Cherokee sports-utility vehicles earlier this month as dealers complained about excess inventory. It is also grappling with labor issues in the U.S., as United Auto Workers (UAW) President Shawn Fain said the union planned to hold a vote authorizing a walkout.

The news sent shares of Stellantis down 13% to $13.97 soon after markets opened Monday, and also hit those of rivals General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F), which are down 3% and 2%, respectively. Stellantis shares have fallen 40% this year.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-29T14:12:50-05:00September 29th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Stellantis Stock Plunges as Jeep Maker Cuts Outlook

Watch These Gold Price Levels as Precious Metal Trades Near Record High

Source: TradingView.com
Source: TradingView.com

Key Takeaways

  • Gold prices will likely remain in focus on Monday after hitting record highs last week, as several catalysts continue driving demand for the metal as a hedge against currency deflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
  • The precious metal has moved sharply higher after breaking out from a rectangle in July, a chart formation that indicates a continuation of the commodity’s strong uptrend.
  • Investors should monitor price targets on gold’s chart projected using the measuring principle and bars pattern at $2,862 and $3,195, respectively.
  • During retracements, investors should watch the $2,414 level that may attract buying interest near the rectangle formation’s top trendline.

Gold (GOLD) prices will likely remain in focus on Monday after setting record highs last week as several catalysts continue driving the demand for the metal as a hedge against currency deflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’s jumbo half-point rate cut earlier this month contributed to recent bullish momentum, and gold received an additional boost last week from China announcing significant stimulus measures and rate reductions in a bid to revive its sluggish economy. Meanwhile, escalating concerns of a broader conflict developing in the Middle East have also underpinned support for the metal.

Below, we take a closer look at the technicals on gold’s weekly chart and point out important price levels to watch out for amid the commodity’s record bull run.

Rectangle Breakout Rally Continues

Gold has continued its impressive rally after breaking out from a rectangle in July, a chart formation that indicates a continuation of the commodity’s strong uptrend.

Although a relative strength index (RSI) reading nearing 80 confirms bullish price momentum, it also increases the possibility of short-term profit taking as bullion bulls lock in some profits. 

Let’s forecast several potential price targets using the measuring principle and a bars pattern, while also pointing out a key retracement level to monitor.

Measuring Principle Price Target 

Investors can forecast how high gold’s current move higher may go using the measuring principle, also referred to as the measured move technique.

To do this, we measure the distance of the uptrend that preceded the rectangle and add that amount to the formation’s top trendline. For example, we add $448 to $2,414, which projects an upside price target of $2,862.

Bars Pattern Price Target

A bars pattern works on the premise of using prior price moves to predict an asset’s future direction.

In this case, we extract the commodity’s trending period from May 2019 to July 2020 and reposition it from the February 2024 low, which forecasts a longer-term price target of around $3,195.

We selected this prior move as it followed a period of multiyear consolidation, similar to gold’s current breakout from a multi-year trading range.

Key Retracement Level to Watch

During retracements, investors should keep their eyes peeled on the $2,414 level, an area on the chart likely to attract buying interest near the rectangle formation’s top trendline.

Depending on the timing of future pullbacks, this location may also closely align with the upward sloping 50-week moving average.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-30T06:39:39-05:00September 29th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Watch These Gold Price Levels as Precious Metal Trades Near Record High

Will the Fed’s Rate Cuts Save Commercial Real Estate?

<p>Investopedia / Photo Illustration by Alice Morgan / Getty Images</p>

Investopedia / Photo Illustration by Alice Morgan / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, begun earlier this month, is expected to alleviate some of the pressure on commercial real estate borrowers and their lenders.
  • The post-pandemic shift in work habits has put particular stress on office loans, which are expected to burden U.S. banks with tens of billions of dollars in losses in the coming years.
  • Experts say the resilience of the U.S. banking system and an abundance of capital available to take over distressed assets should help contain the damage.

The Federal Reserve’s jumbo interest rate cut earlier this month has quickly rippled through financial markets, lifting nimble assets like stocks and gold to record highs. Its impact on the slow-moving commercial real estate market, however, remains unclear.

Approximately $1 trillion of commercial real estate (CRE) debt is coming due next year, nearly 8% of which is tied to the troubled office sector. While experts warn that rate cuts won’t save the office market from a painful reset, they also believe battered commercial real estate isn’t likely to tank the broader economy.

Will Rate Cuts Help Commercial Real Estate?

Commercial real estate has concerned regulators and market participants ever since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022. CRE loans are often refinanced after 5, 7, or 10 years, meaning loans taken out in 2019 may be set to refinance at higher 2024 interest rates. 

S&P Global estimates that the average rate on CRE debt maturing in 2024 is 4.3%, while debt originated in 2024 has an average rate of 6.2%. The monthly payment on a $10 million, 30-year loan refinanced at those rates would jump by nearly a quarter, according to Investopedia estimates.

The Fed’s September rate cut—and its plan to continue cutting rates—lowers the risk that the holders of the debt maturing next year won’t be able to afford refinancing. While CRE loan rates, which are sensitive to the 10-year Treasury yield, have declined from their highs earlier this year, there’s still room for improvement, says Darin Mellott, VP of Capital Markets Research at real estate firm CBRE.

Mellott expects future rate cuts to nudge the 10-year yield down to the mid-three percent range. “That’s a range where the math starts to work out a lot better, and a lot of these deals are going to be able to get refinanced,” he said.

The Fed’s pivot to rate cuts also sends a message to CRE investors that the hoped-for economic “soft landing” is possible, Mellott said. “When the Fed signals that, market participants are going to have a lot more conviction.”

The Problem With Offices—and Lenders

Office properties have their own issues. “Office is undergoing ‘obsolescence reset” that interest rates have exacerbated, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote recently of the troubled sector. 

The post-pandemic shift to work-from-home has altered the office landscape. The average lease size in the first half of this year was 27% smaller than before the pandemic. Commercial real estate services firm Colliers estimates that nearly a fifth of all U.S. office space was vacant at the end of the second quarter.

Rents and property values of all but the highest-end offices have slumped. CRE data firm Trepp estimates that the U.S. office market has lost nearly a quarter of its value since the Federal Reserve began raising rates. And empty offices can mean less demand for nearby retail and other commercial buildings.

Some office owners are struggling to pay back their loans. Nearly 2% of all non-owner occupied CRE loans were overdue by 90 days or more in the second quarter, the highest level since 2013, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The rate at which banks wrote off loans was also the highest since 2013.

Banks are increasing the money they set aside to absorb losses. Credit loss provisions totaled more than $23 billion in the second quarter, according to the FDIC, up 13% from a quarter earlier. The “deterioration” of office markets was one of the reasons cited for the increase.

The situation has been worse—and not that long ago. In 2009, at the height of the subprime mortgage crisis, 8.7% of all CRE loans were delinquent, or 30 days overdue, compared with 1.4% today.

Nonetheless, across the country, office owners and the banks that have underwritten their loans are sitting on billions of dollars of losses. Mellott estimates banks’ CRE loan losses currently total about $60 billion. 

The pain has been mitigated by a willingness on the part of lenders to extend existing loans, effectively pushing out maturities and allowing borrowers to refinance later in a more favorable rate environment. Banks, Mellott said, would prefer that than ” taking the keys back and realizing the loss up front.”

But that may not work for all properties: “Extending a loan on a 25% occupied building may not work out,” says Aaron Jodka, Director of National Capital Markets Research at Colliers.

Some bank losses are inevitable, market watchers say. S&P Global analysts see banks writing off more loans in 2025 than they have this year. Still, they’re unlikely to trigger a full-blown crisis that takes banks by surprise. “You’ll see this probably play out over a period of two to three years,” says Mellott.

Could CRE Distress Spill Over to the Broader Economy?

While the present situation—banks sitting on bad real estate loans—bears passing resemblance to the crisis that sparked the Great Recession, most experts are sanguine about the risk the sector poses to the broader economy. 

Data suggests delinquencies are rising fastest at America’s largest banks, which had the size to lend against the properties that are now the most distressed: large offices in some of America’s most expensive markets. Those banks, however, are also the ones subject to the most stringent regulatory oversight and held to the highest standards.

“Our financial system is far better positioned to handle a challenge in commercial real estate,” Jodka said.

And while banks will likely rein in their CRE lending as they work through their present issues, Jodka notes there’s plenty of money sitting on the sidelines to pick up the slack. Data provider Preqin estimates private equity firms have allocated more than $250 billion to invest in North American real estate.

That dry powder, says Jodka, is likely to help avert a worst-case scenario in which distressed properties are turned over to lenders and lay vacant, stunting job creation and starving municipal tax rolls. 

“Building by building, that can happen,” says Jodka of vacancies. But the ominous commercial real estate doom loop: “I do not foresee that.”

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-28T22:21:53-05:00September 28th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on Will the Fed’s Rate Cuts Save Commercial Real Estate?

The Intel Deal Rumors Keep Piling Up. This One Didn’t Move the Stock Much Today

<p>China News Service / Contributor / Getty Images</p>

China News Service / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Troubled chipmaker Intel has rejected a bid by chip designer Arm Holdings for its product division, Bloomberg reported late Thursday.
  • It was the latest of several Intel-related rumors. Earlier this week, the news outlet reported that Apollo Global Management had offered to invest as much as $5 billion in Intel, days after The Wall Street Journal said that Qualcomm had made a “takeover approach” for it.
  • Intel shares have lost more than half their value since the start of the year amid concerns about the chipmaker’s ability to turn around its business.

Yet another Intel (INTC) rumor is out there—this time, about a deal that appears not to be happening.

The embattled chipmaker, shares of which are down more than 50% this year, rejected a bid by chip designer Arm Holdings (ARM) for its product division, Bloomberg reported late Thursday.

Intel’s woes have attracted deal activity, as well as deal chatter. Earlier this week, the news outlet reported that Apollo Global Management had offered to invest as much as $5 billion in Intel,. Days earlier,The Wall Street Journal said that Qualcomm (QCOM) had made a “takeover approach” for the company.

Apart from its product division, which sells chips for personal computers, servers and networking equipment, Intel’s other main unit is one that operates its factories. Both Arm and Intel declined to comment.

Intel, which is struggling with high debt levels and trying to stem losses, earlier this month updated investors about its strategic plans, which include separating the chip product division from its manufacturing operations.

Intel shares finished Friday—and the week—little changed. Investor concerns that the chipmaker will struggle to turn around its business have weight on the stock this year.

American depositary receipts (ADRs) of Arm fell more than 2%.

Read the original article on Investopedia.

By |2024-09-28T02:00:30-05:00September 27th, 2024|Investopedia 4|Comments Off on The Intel Deal Rumors Keep Piling Up. This One Didn’t Move the Stock Much Today
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