Economists Expect a September Rate Cut. Here’s What Fed Officials Are Saying

Key Takeaways

• While economists are trying to forecast the Federal Reserve’s path policy path, officials have remained vague on their plans. 
• A handful of central bankers made remarks in public or the press after Wednesday’s inflation report, but none committed to cutting the influential fed funds rate at their September meeting.
• Market watchers are looking ahead to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell next week.

This week’s economic data didn’t move Federal Reserve officials to commit to a rate cut in September — at least not publicly.

A handful of central bankers have appeared publicly or spoken to the press since new inflation data showed annual price increases were the slowest since March 2021. The inflation data bolstered economists’ expectations that the Fed will cut its influential fed funds rate in September and had them talking about how deep the cut could be.

Central bankers, however, did not outline specific details of how the data was influencing their rate cut decision.

What Are Fed Officials Waiting For?

The Fed has held its the fed funds rate at a record high for the past year in an attempt to discourage spending and squash inflation. Inflation has come down from its 2022 peak, and economy watchers have said it is likely time to ease the central banks’ restrictive policy.

Central bankers have said they want confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward its annual goal of 2% before cutting rates to avoid reigniting price pressures.

In public comments in Louisville, Ky. on Thursday, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem said inflation appeared to be on the right path, according to a Bloomberg News report.

The time for rate cuts is “nearing,” he said, but didn’t specifically mention plans for September.

Some Officials ‘Open’ to Interest Rate Cut in September

In an interview with the Financial Times, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he was “open” to cutting interest rates at the Fed’s next committee meeting in September, echoing comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee similarly kept his projections vague in an interview with Bloomberg News, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to begin considering interest rate cuts as the labor market weakens.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker made no reference to interest rates or monetary policy on Thursday when he appeared at a conference on economic data.

While market watchers may not be getting much clarity from Fed officials this week, some hints may be ahead. Powell is expected to speak next week at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

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